Marcus Picks the Oscars - Part II

Part two is underway of my Oscar picks and predix. Full disclosure: I only watched 25 minutes of the The Fighter. I honestly have no desire to ever see the rest/end of that movie. But regardless, here we go:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Who Will Win: Christian Bale. Well Bale has done it again. He's completely altered his physical appearance for a role as a washed up boxer, turned druggie training his brother who happens to be Mark Wahlberg. He apparently isn't even himself anymore, but frankly I thought he was borderline caricature in the beginning of the film. Oh yeah- and there's this: CLICK ME. Forgot about that, didn't you Hollywood? Call me old fashioned but part of being a great actor is not treating your crew like shit....

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Who Should Win: Geoffrey Rush. Because he's never gone into a fit of rage that wasn't scripted AND because after The King's Speech all I wanted was for him to be my best friend. I'm fairly certain I brought up faking a speech impediment to Denny after we saw this, simply to go visit Rush. In all seriousness though, he was the perfect foil to Firth and I found myself rooting for Firth not simply because he was great, but also because a success for Firth's Bertie was a success for Rush's Lionel.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Who Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld. Don't ask me why. I hated the film, but the Academy didn't. There is going to be an upset in one of the major acting categories (as Leo is the front runner) and this will be the category it happens in. What is usually my favorite category is so blah this year. True Grit was a box office success and they'll want to find a place to reward it. This is it. Plus Steinfeld is gaining a ton of momentum and has more screen time than any of the other actresses. The Academy is about to turn its precedent of "reward the child actor with the nomination itself" on its side and give Steinfeld the trophy- but that doesn't mean they'll put her in the lead category.

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Who Should Win: Helena Bonham Carter. She completely transformed herself out of the eccentric, mismatched-shoe-wearing, neo-witch she has become. On top of that, she gave a subtly moving performance that was the epitome of a great supporting actress. Her turn, however, is being overshadowed by phenomenal performances by Firth and Rush, and a slew of mediocre performances crowding the supporting actress race. I am also still pissed that my Black Swan supporting ladies didn't work their way in here.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

What Will Win: Inception. The Academy owes Nolan big time. They screwed him over with The Dark Knight and completely blanked on even nominating him for director for the visually explosive mind fuck that was Inception. The best director nods are the scene of the crime... They'll make it up to him here.

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What Should Win: The Kids Are All Right. I laughed. I cried. And I was just reading the script. The script has so much heart, that it's no wonder the movie felt love. The characters are just as defined on the page as they are on the screen and this is the type of genre that the original screenplay usually loves. It's right up there with Little Miss Sunshine in the "quirky family dramedy" genre.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

What Will and Should Win: The Social Network. Do I even need to go further on this one? If they could have nominated Sorkin five times they would have. His dialogue is brilliant. It's the perfect combination of material and writer and will undoubtedly be recognized.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

What Will Win: Toy Story 3. Pixar is incredible, I will not deny that. This movie did everything that was promised to me. The characters were just as lovable and the story line just as heart wrenching and loving. But the fact that I am using the phrase "just as" should clue you in to something - it is simply a play into a fan base that is already there. Yes, its great. But is it original?

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What Should Win: How To Train Your Dragon. This movie utilized animation in a way that animation was intended to be used. The flying sequences were so much fun, and save for Wall-E, I have never associated so strongly with an animated character. Hiccup was the perfect everyman. His connection with Toothless and his desire to please his father were amazing emotional through-lines to a thoroughly entertaining and beautiful movie.